How New Tariffs Could Reshape U.S. Energy Costs and Reliability

Policy decisions and trade dynamics are evolving rapidly, and yesterday’s news may not be tomorrow’s reality. As of now, the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with the potential to extend them to the European Union. While tariffs are often positioned as a tool to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, applying them to energy brings a unique set of challenges.

For energy users, these measures could drive up costs, impact reliability, and disrupt long-standing supply relationships. While some industries may see benefits from tariffs, the energy sector—where pricing, supply chains, and infrastructure are highly interconnected—faces far more risks than rewards.

The Natural Gas Market: Balancing Costs and Supply

The U.S. is a major natural gas exporter, but Canadian imports remain essential, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. A 10% tariff on Canadian natural gas could quickly translate into higher prices, especially during peak winter demand.

• Higher Costs for Consumers – If Canadian suppliers pass down the cost of tariffs, end users in cold-weather states could see higher heating and electricity bills.
• Oil Prices and Natural Gas Supply – U.S. shale drillers, especially in the Permian Basin, produce significant amounts of natural gas as a byproduct of oil drilling. When oil prices are high, more drilling means more gas supply, helping stabilize prices. However, with OPEC+ increasing oil production in April, global oil prices could ease, potentially reducing U.S. drilling activity and tightening domestic gas supply.
• Fuel-Switching and Market Volatility – Some power plants can switch between oil and natural gas based on price. If tariffs push oil prices higher, these plants may increase gas demand, driving natural gas prices up. Conversely, if OPEC+ keeps oil prices low, more plants could burn oil instead, reducing gas demand and creating swings in energy pricing.

Electricity Prices and Infrastructure: What’s at Stake?

Electricity markets will also feel the ripple effects of tariffs, particularly in regions dependent on natural gas or power imports from Canada.

• Higher Fuel Costs Mean Higher Power Prices – Natural gas-fired generation dominates in PJM, ERCOT, and ISO-NE. If gas prices rise due to tariffs, electricity costs could follow.
• Uncertainty for Canadian Hydro Imports – New England and New York rely on Canadian hydropower. If tariffs extend to electricity imports—or if Canada retaliates—these regions could face supply challenges and higher prices, especially during peak demand.
• Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Raise Infrastructure Costs – Higher prices for steel and aluminum impact the construction and maintenance of transmission lines, substations, and power plants. Utilities are likely to pass these costs onto consumers over time.

Reliability and Energy Security: Strengthening or Weakening?

• Winter Reliability Risks – New England already faces pipeline constraints in the winter, and tariffs on Canadian gas could make things worse, increasing costs and grid stress when energy is needed most.
• Shifting Crude Oil Imports – If U.S. refiners move away from Canadian crude due to tariffs, they may turn to less stable suppliers, such as OPEC+, increasing geopolitical risks.
• Retaliatory Risks – If Canada or Mexico counter with their own tariffs, U.S. businesses and consumers could face higher costs or restricted supply in regions heavily dependent on cross-border energy trade.

Tariffs Have Their Uses—But Energy May Be the Wrong Place

Tariffs are often used to protect domestic industries, promote job creation, and encourage local investment. In manufacturing and other sectors, they can provide economic leverage.

But when it comes to energy, tariffs are far more disruptive than protective. The energy sector depends on stable trade flows, infrastructure investments, and price-sensitive markets. While there’s an argument for strengthening domestic energy independence, tariffs on vital imports—such as Canadian natural gas, crude, and electricity—introduce cost pressures and volatility rather than resilience.

Navigating the Uncertainty

While tariffs are a tool of economic policy, their impact on energy markets skews heavily toward added costs and supply risks. Higher fuel and electricity prices, infrastructure cost increases, and potential reliability challenges make energy-related tariffs a high-risk strategy with limited upside.

For businesses and large energy users, the key to managing these risks lies in assessing exposure to Canadian imports, monitoring market trends, and considering hedging strategies to mitigate volatility. Staying informed and adaptable will be imperative as these policies play out.

The bottom line? Tariffs may have their place in economic policy, but applying them to energy comes with significant unintended consequences—many of which could outweigh any short-term gains.

For additional information please contact us to schedule a quick call.