What the Widowmaker Spread Tells Us About Late Winter Risk

In natural gas, a small price difference can cause a very big reaction. The March to April spread earned the nickname “widowmaker” because when it moves the wrong way, it can move fast. Traders caught on the wrong side often describe it as a heart attack trade, especially when late winter cold shows up and the market suddenly has to price scarcity again. The name stuck because it captures how unforgiving the end of winter can be.

That drama aside, the widowmaker spread matters because it reveals how the market feels about late winter risk.

What is the Widowmaker Spread

The widowmaker spread is the price difference between March and April natural gas futures. These months sit on either side of a seasonal turning point.

March is still winter, when heating demand can remain meaningful and storage withdrawals are still in play. April typically marks the start of shoulder season, when demand eases and the market shifts toward refilling storage.

In plain terms, the spread answers one key question: How much extra value is the market placing on the last stretch of winter?

What it Usually Looks Like

Most of the time, March trades higher than April. That is normal seasonal structure. Winter gas tends to carry a premium because it is more valuable when cold weather can drive demand quickly.

So the important story is not whether March is above April. The important story is how far above.

Why the Width of the Spread Matters

Think of the March premium as a kind of “risk charge” for winter.

• A narrow spread means the market is not demanding much extra payment to cover March. That usually signals comfort: adequate inventories, solid supply flexibility, and limited fear of a late-season squeeze.
• A wide spread means the market is paying up for March relative to April. That usually signals stress: tighter inventories, less margin for error, and greater sensitivity to late-winter weather surprises.

For energy buyers, a widening spread often shows up when the market is more volatile, meaning a forecast change can have a larger impact on pricing.

You do not need to trade the widowmaker spread to use it. It is a simple confidence gauge for the end of winter. March typically trades higher than April, and the market’s message is embedded in the size of that premium. Tight usually means comfort. Wide usually means stress, and a higher chance that prices react quickly to late winter weather.

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