As we approach the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, 2025, forecasters are signaling an above-normal year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 60% chance of an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Source: NOAA
Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions
ENSO Neutral Phase The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase. This means that neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present, which can influence hurricane activity. Historically, ENSO-neutral years have been associated with active hurricane seasons, as was the case in 2019.
Wind Shear and Sea Surface Temperatures Wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height, can inhibit hurricane formation. However, during ENSO-neutral conditions, wind shear is typically lower, especially over the Atlantic. This creates a more favorable environment for storm development.
In addition, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Atlantic are warmer than average. Warm SSTs provide the energy needed for tropical cyclones to form and intensify. The combination of low wind shear and warm SSTs sets the stage for a potentially active hurricane season.
Potential for Northern Landfalls While the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. are traditionally more susceptible to hurricanes, warmer ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns can allow storms to maintain strength farther north. This raises the possibility of landfalls in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions.
Implications for Energy Markets
Historically, hurricanes have been bullish for energy markets, particularly oil and natural gas, because they disrupt offshore production. However, the dynamics have changed. The U.S. has shifted much of its natural gas production from offshore to onshore, especially in shale regions. As a result, hurricanes today have a smaller impact on production levels. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export terminals along the Gulf Coast are now more vulnerable to disruption. When a storm threatens these facilities, operators often suspend activity to ensure safety. This can lead to a temporary oversupply of gas in the domestic market, which softens prices. At the same time, hurricanes can also reduce demand by causing widespread power outages and infrastructure damage. The combination of steady supply and reduced demand can create downward pressure on natural gas prices.
While most hurricane-related price impacts are typically short-lived, the severity and duration of the disruption can influence how far those effects extend. A storm that threatens LNG export operations or leads to significant demand destruction will often lead to a drop in spot prices in the immediate term due to curtailed export capacity and reduced consumption, both of which leave more supply within the domestic market. However, forward curves tend to remain relatively stable unless the event significantly alters broader supply and demand dynamics.
In cases of prolonged disruption, such as a storm that forces extended LNG terminal closures, bearish fundamentals may begin to assert themselves. Increased domestic natural gas surpluses, combined with reduced export volumes, can lead to larger-than-expected storage injections. This can put downward pressure not just on spot pricing, but also on the front end of the forward curve, softening prices for near-term delivery months.
Balancing Market Impacts with Human Considerations
While it's essential to analyze the economic implications of hurricanes, it's equally important to acknowledge the human toll. Storms can cause loss of life, displacement, and long-term community disruptions. As we assess market dynamics, empathy and support for affected populations should remain paramount.
As the 2025 hurricane season unfolds, staying informed and prepared is essential. Both individuals and industries must monitor forecasts and plan accordingly to mitigate risks and ensure safety.
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