Energy buyers in deregulated power markets are constantly hearing the same two headlines. LNG exports are squeezing the U.S. natural gas balance, and data centers are accelerating electricity demand. Both are true. Buyers get a real advantage when they can size these forces and understand how, when, and where they show up in pricing, because that context drives better procurement decisions. In this post, we put LNG, data center load growth, and market impacts on the same scale to translate headlines into comparable numbers.
That starts by translating electricity load into the same terms the gas market uses. Natural gas demand is measured in billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Power demand is measured in megawatts (MW). To compare LNG and data centers directly, electricity load has to be converted into gas consumption.
Here is a practical reference point. A modern 100 MW gas-fired combined-cycle plant running continuously consumes roughly 0.015 to 0.020 Bcf/d of natural gas. That range assumes an efficient heat rate of about 7,200 Btu per kilowatt-hour (kWh). At that heat rate, 100 MW operating around the clock produces about 2,400 megawatt-hours (MWh) per day, which translates to roughly 0.017 Bcf/d of gas use.
Now scale it up. Roughly 6,000 MW, or 6 GW, of continuous gas-fired generation equals about 1 Bcf/d of natural gas demand. That 6 GW per 1 Bcf/d relationship is the anchor for everything that follows.
How LNG draws on the system
LNG affects the gas market directly because liquefaction terminals pull gas straight from the pipeline system. The number that matters for domestic supply and demand is LNG feedgas, which is the volume of gas delivered into those terminals.
Feedgas is the true draw on the U.S. system. When it rises, domestic supply tightens. When it declines, pressure eases. Short-term changes, such as outages or ramp timing, tend to show up first at the front of the curve. Longer-term growth from new LNG capacity or regulatory shifts is what can reprice the back of the curve.
Projects currently under construction are expected to add roughly 4 to 6 Bcf/d of incremental LNG feedgas demand over the next three years. Using the generation conversion above, that is equivalent to approximately 24 to 36 GW of continuous gas-fired generation.
That is a very large addition to baseline demand and likely only the first wave of growth. Additional LNG capacity expected beyond 2030 could push feedgas demand materially higher, extending the structural pull-on U.S. supply well into the next decade.
On a national gas balance basis, LNG remains the larger structural lever.
How data centers pressure markets
Data center growth is real and accelerating, but it behaves differently. It does not show up as one large, steady pipeline draw. Instead, it appears as incremental electricity load in specific regions. That load can tighten reserve margins, stress transmission systems, and change congestion patterns. The first impact is often on regional power prices rather than on the national gas balance.
There can also be direct gas demand from behind-the-meter or co-located generation. However, several factors limit the overall gas impact:
- Not all data center loads are served by natural gas
- Many projects rely on renewables, nuclear, or hybrid solutions
- Some load is supplied partially or fully outside the public grid
Even under strong buildout assumptions, the conversion is straightforward. Estimates for incremental U.S. data center load over the next decade range from roughly 15 GW on the conservative end to 40 GW or more in aggressive projections. Converting that to gas demand:
- Around 20 GW with partial gas reliance could equate to roughly 1 to 2 Bcf/d
- Around 40 GW with heavier gas participation could approach 3 to 4 Bcf/d
Those volumes are meaningful, but they generally fall below the 4 to 6 Bcf/d of LNG feedgas growth already underway. As LNG expansion continues beyond 2030, the gap is likely to widen.
Location ultimately determines where data center impacts appear first.
- In constrained zones, incremental load can quickly push up congestion and basis
- In capacity-constrained regions, load growth can lift capacity costs and forward on-peak premiums
- In regions with ample generation but limited transmission, congestion can dominate
The gas burn may be noticeable in certain markets, but nationally it remains smaller than the LNG effect. A customer in New England may not feel data center-driven load growth in Texas, but they can still feel the impact of LNG export demand pulling gas from the system through terminals in Louisiana.
Pipeline and deliverability
Infrastructure determines how these pressures translate into price.
For LNG, pipeline capacity into Gulf Coast liquefaction facilities is imperative. As feedgas demand rises, the system must move additional supply to those terminals. Deliverability constraints can amplify price reactions.
For data centers, transmission capacity and interconnection timing determine where power prices respond first. Both trends increase the value of infrastructure, but they operate in different parts of the system.
The distinction is straightforward. LNG growth tends to affect the overall price level by tightening gas supply and influencing fuel costs. Data center growth more often affects where and when prices spike by tightening regional power conditions.
Bottom line
When measured in the same unit of Bcf/d, the comparison becomes clear. Every 6 GW of sustained gas-fired generation equals about 1 Bcf/d of gas demand. Near-term LNG expansion of 4 to 6 Bcf/d represents the equivalent of 24 to 36 GW of continuous generation, with additional growth likely beyond 2030.
Data center growth, even under aggressive assumptions, is more likely to add 3 to 4 Bcf/d depending on fuel mix and sourcing strategy. That is substantial, but not larger than LNG on a national basis.
Data centers are reshaping regional power markets, while LNG is reshaping the national gas balance. That distinction matters when evaluating structural pressure on forward curves.
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